Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): Buy 
Di, 15.09.26 09:00· Quelle: dpa-AFX

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Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG

15.09.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

     Company Name:                MHP Hotel AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A3E5C24

     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              Buy
     Target price:                EUR 3.50
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald

H1 optics are worse than operations; chg.

Following Friday's guidance cut, MHP released its H1 report yesterday,
confirming the picture. In detail:

H1 sales came in at EUR 99.3m (eNuW: EUR 98.3m), up 25% yoy. Growth was
significantly carried by the new hotels (Conrad and Hyatt Vienna), which
added EUR 17m, implying organic growth of 3.8%. Occupancy came in at 72.0%,
ADR at EUR 219 and RevPAR at EUR 158. Mind you, the reported rate data is
adjusted for Conrad only. The Andaz Vienna was rebranded to Hyatt Regency
over Easter, which both disrupted Q2 trading and structurally lowers
portfolio ADR, so like-for-like rate erosion is materially smaller than the
reported 1% decline suggests.

Margin looks worse than it is. H1 EBITDA of EUR 0.2m was only slightly behind
eNuW of EUR 0.6m. The H1'25 EUR 2.3m figure is actually not a good comparable,
as it was inflated by EUR 4.0m Conrad FF&E related one-offs. Hence, there is
no cost problem as operating EBITDA improved by EUR 1.9m yoy.

Slower Conrad ramp-up and Middle East cause guidance cut. While the sales
guidance was only slightly cut to EUR 220-225m (old: c. EUR 225m), EBITDA was
adjusted more significantly from c. EUR 10m to c. EUR 8m. The main reason for
this is seen to be the Conrad, where occupancy ramp-up is running below
budget as flows through the brand systems have not materialized yet. On top
of this comes Middle East. Although accounting for only 2.5% of sales (FY25
base), these guests are the usual suite bookers and carry well above-average
F&B spend, causing a disproportionate earnings hit. Energy adds to the
pressure, not only on pure price but also higher consumption during the
summer heat. The implied H2 run-rate of EUR 7.8m however seems reasonable, in
our view, as H2 is seasonally the far stronger half, with events like
Oktoberfest and EXPO REAL carrying Q3 and December now among the portfolio's
strongest months on Christmas market demand.

Overall, the case is intact, as the cut is largely a timing issue (Conrad),
not structural. Besides this, the company remains the leading white-label
operator in the DACH premium segment, with privileged access to high-barrier
assets that come with limited capital commitment of its own. This allows the
platform to add about 1,000 rooms by FY29e without touching the balance
sheet. With premium demand structurally unbroken and the Conrad ramp-up a
question of when rather than if, the earnings power of the enlarged
portfolio should come through from FY27e onwards. At current levels, the
market is not at all pricing this.

Changes in estimates reflect the FY26 guidance adjustment as well as a more
conservate approach on return to normal from Middle East travellers.

We thus reiterate BUY with a new PT of EUR 3.50 (old: EUR 3.70) based on DCF.

You can download the research here:

https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=81efa950861b12c8efa47cc8c135f344

For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++

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2399172 15.09.2026 CET/CEST

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